1) Covid-19 infection fatality rates (IFR) based on antibody studies
Population-based antibody seroprevalence studies.
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1) The adjusted IFR is 0.278% (see page 9 of study); 2) Based on 300 deaths.
2) Covid-19 infection fatality rates based on controlled PCR studies
Controlled PCR studies in population subgroups.
1) Age-adjusted IFR based on US population.
2) Deaths in Italian health care workers by age group (ISS, April 28, 2020)
3) Covid-19 infection fatality rates based on models
Covid-19 IFR based on epidemiological models or predictions. These values are often somewhat higher than the actual values based on serological antibody studies (see above).
1) Based on 29% prevalence and 50,000 deaths; 2) The IFR is 0.50 excluding nursing homes.
French model: IFR (x100) per age group (Study)
4) Additional antibody and PCR studies
These studies determine the actual prevalence of recent or current Covid-19 infections in a population or region. In most cases, they find that Covid-19 is much more widespread than previously assumed, with most people showing no or only mild symptoms.
5) Median age of Covid-19 deaths per country
Half of all deaths were below, half were above the median age.
Example: Death rate by age group in Massachusetts (Source)
7) Hospitalization rate
Initial estimates based on Chinese data assumed a very high 20% hospitalization rate, which led to the strategy of ‘flattening the curve’ to avoid overburdening hospitals. However, population-based antibody studies (see above) have since shown that actual hospitalization rates are close to 1%, which is within the range of hospitalization rates for influenza (1 to 2%).
The US CDC found that Covid-19 hospitalization rates for people aged 65 and over are “within ranges of influenza hospitalization rates”, with rates slightly higher for people aged 18 to 64 and “much lower” (compared to influenza) for people under 18.
In local hotspots like New York City, the overall hospitalization rate based on antibody studies is about 2.5% (19.9% or 1.7 million people with antibodies and 43,000 hospitalizations by May 2).
The much lower than expected hospitalization rate may explain why most Covid-19 ‘field hospitals’ even in hard-hit countries like the US, the UK and China remained largely empty.
8) Percentage of Covid-19 deaths in care homes per country
In many countries, deaths in care homes account for 30 to 60% of all additional deaths. In Canadaand some US states, care homes account for up to 80% of all “Covid19-related” deaths.
Source: Mortality associated with COVID-19 outbreaks in care homes (LTC Covid, May 3, 2020)
Source: The Covid-19 Nursing Home Crisis by The Numbers (Freopp, May 12, 2020)
9) Development of the epidemic
Even in countries without a lockdown, the epidemic reached its peak within a few weeks of the outbreak. However, many media showed cumulative deaths per day of report (left) instead of dailydeaths per day of death (right), falsely implying an ever escalating situation.
Cumulative deaths per day of report vs. daily deaths per day of death. (OWD/FOHM; April 24)
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